There is a good article on MSNBC http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31146562/ about the Chevrolet Volt and how conflicted GM is about building it. While they are 100% committed to doing so, they continue to worry about its acceptance in the marketplace and about the financial viability of building an all-new product which will not and cannot be profitable - yet. Only a very small portion of the car buying public will consider a Volt and this will not cover costs, much less any profit. And the Federal Government “green” subsidiary of $7500 per car (tax refund after the initial purchase price of approx. $40,000) does not tilt the equation. Lutz points out that the car needs to be $15-20,000 less to work - but those prices will come down as the technology gets better and production rises.
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As an aside, Lutz also points out that they have been concerned that the Camaro is the wrong car at the wrong time - certainly the liberals at the Obama administration think so. It's a highly visible car right now, it's on the covers of all the magazines (indeed, a "pony car" war is taking place in their pages), and as MSNBC points out GM has provided a display model front and center at the Detroit airport for everyone to see. GM might have been smarter to keep a low profile.
In our humble opinion, the Camaro is the wrong car at the wrong time. We like some aspects of the car, but it's too big and too heavy for a car a driving enthusiast can enjoy and actually use. Let’s face it - it's gigantic, a full-size car. It's also the only platform that GM had to build a Camaro on, just like the Challenger was built on the only available platform (and is even larger). But at least GM spent the money to develop an up-to-date suspension, 6-speed transmissions across the board, and gearing that provides good acceleration combined with low highway revs. But the worse part about the Camaro, Challenger, and even the so-slightly-smaller Mustang is that by building them on such large platforms, the automakers might have sealed their fate. There is no money anywhere for a smaller rear wheel drive platform, and none of these three cars can be shrunk any further on the current platform because of architectural constraints inherent in those platforms. In other words, there is no long-term future for these platforms and there is nothing in the pipeline to build a replacement on. GM canceled a small rear wheel drive platform a few years ago that would be been ideal, and Ford did the same earlier in the decade when a whole raft of future products were canceled just because Little Billy Ford attempted to sweep under the carpet the long range planning Jacques Nasser had in place. Plans that included a little brother to the DEW platform, the size of a BMW 3-series rather than the 5-series-sized Lincoln LS. Nasser was right, and Little Billy's knee-jerk reaction to being bettered left the company devoid of product plans for many years (plans which, BTW, also included the European Fords coming to North America much earlier then when they'll finally arrive).
When it comes to the long term future of the Mustang, what we want to see is a car the same size as the Fox-body Mustangs. With a hatchback body and engines ranging from a 4-cylinder thru a twin-turbo V-6 at the top. No V-8 - and yes you saw that right. The upcoming Coyote V-8 is not going to match the emissions, fuel economy, or the acceleration of a proper EcoBoost V-6 engine. Instead, it will have extra weight (all over the nose, in a car with a weight balance problem to begin with), it will have slower acceleration, and (for those of you who like to thumb your nose at society) it will have far less modification potential. In a car about 170 inches long, with the practicality of a hatch and a weight of about 3200 pounds, we'd have something sustainable. Unfortunately, though, there isn't a dime in the budget to create such a platform. |
Getting back to the point, the technology will improve over time and the entire electric experience will become more mainstream. The types of developments we'll see in the next year or two will only serve to accelerate the rise of fully-electric cars. A current example is the phenomenal sales of the Hybrid Fusion - a powertrain in just its second generation (and, we should point out that GM has nothing in their product line that nears the sophistication of a Ford-style hybrid: GM's hybrid technology is laughable).
The entire hybrid marketplace is still in its infancy but is growing quickly. Nissan has just entered the market with a hybrid Altima, and is reportedly developing a dedicated Prius-type car (believing like Toyota that you have to look the part to be a follower of the religion). Chrysler has made progress in electric development - but on a shoestring budget (at least until the rest of the lawsuits are thrown out by Monday and the Fiat partnership is finalized). GM has other uses for the Volt powertrain as well, most notable a stunning Cadillac that attempts to the Lutzian angst about product “sexiness and desirability”.
The next step is so-called “plug-in” hybrids. Ford has been running fleets of Escapes in this configuration for the last couple of years. It’s apparently in their production plans (although the upcoming replacement for the Escape is probably dictating the timeframe), and there is also a hybrid or fully electric Focus coming at some point after it enters North American production.
But what about cars for the driving enthusiast? Boxy 4-doors, even with appealing technologies, aren't for us. But don't rule out this type of powerplant - it has fabulous potential for enthusiasts and could be very appealing with a little more development. Look at how the Tesla performs: its first generation technology (built on a shoestring budget) has created supercar-like acceleration and has preserved most of the dynamic handling attributes of the Lotus platform it's based on. Its engine produces maximum torque at 1 RPM thru 14,000 RPM: 276 lb/ft of torque and it's available to use as the driver sees fit. As is the 248 HP. And this from a 1st generation powerplant with "version 1.5" software. Incredible results from battery technology that is already out-dated.
A hybrid for driving enthusiasts would marry a larger-sized 4 or a small 6 cylinder engine with hybrid electronics to produce a car that could run solely on battery power for slow-to-medium speeds, or a coupling of gas engine with an electric motor to produce the full torque and horsepower combined output from of both engines. That is what Honda does with its hybrids already: Honda-type hybrids use small electric motors as a supplement to the gas engine. Thus making the total combined output of both available for acceleration. GM and BMW do this in large trucks and large cars respectively, in a simpler way with an electric motor in parallel to the transmission. Infiniti is about to offer such a system, debuting in the 2011 M-series cars, already demonstrated to the press in the G-series cars, and talked about for a future Nissan Z as well (all three cars sharing the same chassis makes this easy). Toyota has shown a Z-sized concept offering the combination of a gasoline V-6 with an electric motor acting as a supplement, producing over 400 horsepower combined (an earlier generation of this engine is already offered in a Lexus hybrid).
As far as a hybrid or all-electric sports car, there is a lot of development work to be done. Honda will introduce a 2-seat front wheel drive car next year that has some of the makings of a sports car – at least in Honda’s mind. Front-wheel drive does not yield a “sports car” in our humble opinion. We see it as more of a commuting car.
The Tesla is indeed a pure sports car and a side benefit of the all-electric powertrain is supercar-like acceleration: 0-60 in under 4 seconds (and more coming soon with an update to the software). However, as demonstrated in the current issue of Evo (the European enthusiast magazine), multiple laps will overheat the battery packs. Tesla has addressed this issue (which would presumably never come up in street driving) and has said that some sort of cooling improvement would be needed to make the Tesla into a track car. Driving Enthusiasts won’t accept issues that would prohibit us from using the car on the track (never mind how we’re supposed to get the car to the track in the first place). The Tesla (and everything else at the moment) has primitive batteries with limited range and power and this same issue is holding back both hybrids and pure-electrics.
The technologies involved and envisioned by the manufacturers is a very large and complex topic and to explain the many and varied technologies on the market today is outside the scope of this post. However, to help relate it and as background for the MSNBC article, we’ve prepared a chart showing today’s landscape as well as a couple of products coming in the next few years. Which of these technologies are temporary stepping stones, which become predominate, or (more likely) which are used for different types of vehicles in various stages of the evolution – all will be determined by market and political forces. While enthusiasts will probably have the option of a hybrid sports coupe in the form of a 370Z in 3-4 years, don’t look for an all-electric Z until the end of the decade, at least.
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